I'd humbly differ on this one - I think the numbers aren't as binary - you could earn a lot more with 500 followers, and a lot less with 5,000 - depends on how you define "active" - but I'd think if you have 1,000 "active" followers, you're probably at more than double that in terms of total followers - and again a lot of your readtimes may not even come from followers.

I wish the math on Medium was as simple - but the only constant I find is the fact that there is a translation of Read-time to Money i.e. each minute of read time is roughly 2–3 cents of money.

Now, this varies, if you find a reader who only reads very few stories a month, at his / her period ending date, you get a sizeable chunk of the payment.

So my difference of view is that to chase a constant dollar payment, you’re better of chasing a set average daily read time vs. a number of followers. That is surely a more reliable way of looking at earnings.